Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.769473 3.812430 5.310248 7.700782 1.158711e+01 17.985259 30.106851
2025-03-16 1.784552 2.828859 4.643826 8.308250 1.635960e+01 35.879153 99.439052
2025-03-23 1.272996 2.263497 4.287695 9.366414 2.458740e+01 83.271635 522.551670
2025-03-30 0.935676 1.829250 3.927789 10.368430 3.700456e+01 220.062840 6803.560219
2025-04-06 0.662073 1.384391 3.262472 10.009964 4.693354e+01 518.471105 700457.258096
2025-04-13 0.473952 1.042547 2.641827 9.173429 5.507456e+01 1226.767219 NaN
2025-04-20 0.377245 0.879617 2.429672 9.851407 8.344188e+01 7095.629746 NaN
2025-04-27 0.318092 0.787974 2.388317 11.566169 1.539808e+02 372229.580428 NaN
2025-05-04 0.273948 0.718334 2.383436 13.887690 3.223669e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.231006 0.632370 2.251846 15.297559 6.152742e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.188345 0.528860 1.965363 14.709546 8.839689e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.152762 0.435919 1.665054 13.286617 1.072198e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.132555 0.391721 1.589592 14.685983 2.604847e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.115093 0.350472 1.499690 15.853541 7.065942e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.102305 0.321822 1.460348 18.053552 3.532973e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.091024 0.294565 1.408403 20.160660 3.716939e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.078201 0.256230 1.253905 19.201901 1.982778e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.066750 0.220018 1.088844 17.235956 6.089255e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.060231 0.202727 1.043945 18.637429 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.056015 0.193937 1.054748 22.393101 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.052543 0.187212 1.077527 27.674868 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.048346 0.175606 1.050536 30.933405 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.043225 0.157954 0.956585 29.450844 NaN NaN NaN